Research/Publications

America’s Newest Voters:
Understanding Immigrant and Minority Voting Behavior

Recent Voting Behavior of Citizens

To be an informed observer of the 2004 elections, it is useful to have an appreciation of electoral conditions at the state level and the recent voting behavior of its citizens. Such information provides observers with an understanding of which states play an important role in deciding the presidential election; suggests how active citizens of any given state are at election time; and forecasts how candidates might fare in particular states.

In the United States, presidents are chosen according to the electoral college system. Based on its population, each state holds a certain number of electoral college votes. There are 538 electoral college votes in all. A presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes in order to be elected. Table 1 (see below) lists the population of each state as well as the number of electoral college votes that state holds. By examining this list, one can determine which states hold the most electoral college votes and, therefore, are most important to candidates. For example, states with large populations such as California, New York, and Texas hold a large number of electoral college votes (California holds 54 votes, New York has 33 votes, Texas holds 32 votes) and play a crucial role in a presidential candidate’s campaign.

Table 1: Total Population and Electoral Votes, By State
 
The recent voting behavior of states also helps to forecast the nature of participation in the next election. Table 2 (see below) lists the number and percentage of citizens that registered and voted from each state in 2000. This information is useful because it suggests which citizens are more active and more likely to participate in the upcoming election and which states have a history of weak participation. Such information also might explain the voter mobilization activities of candidates and their campaigns. For example, Texas is an important state to presidential candidates and had relatively low rates of voter turnout in 2000 (43.1% of the voting age population). In such a situation, it might be in a candidate’s best interest to focus attention on getting out the vote in such a state.
 
Table 2: Voter Registration and Turnout 2000
 

State	2000 VAP	2000 Registered	% Register. of VAP	Turnout	% Turnout of Register.	% Turnout of VAP
Alabama	3,333,000	2,528,963	75.9	1,666,272	65.9	50
Alaska	430,000	473,648	110	285,560	60.3	66.4
Arizona	3,625,000	2,173,122	59.9	1,532,016	70.5	42.3
Arkansas	1,929,000	1,555,809	80.7	921,781	59.2	47.8
California	24,873,000	15,707,307	63.2	10,965, 822	69.8	44.1
Colorado	3,067,000	2,274,152	74.1	1,741,368	76.6	56.8
Connecticut	2,499,000	1,874,245	75	1,459,526	77.9	58.4
Delaware	582,000	505,360	86.8	327,529	64.8	56.3
Dist. of Columbia	411,000	354,410	86.2	201,894	57	49.1
Florida	11,774,000	8,752,717	74.3	5,963,110	68.1	50.6
Georgia	5,893,000	3,859,960	65.5	2,583,208	66.9	43.8
Hawaii	909,000	637,349	70.1	367,951	57.7	40.5
Idaho	921,000	728,085	79.1	501,615	68.9	54.5
Illinois	8,983,000	7,129,026	79.4	4,742,115	66.5	52.8
Indiana	4,448,000	4,000,809	89.9	2,180,305	54.5	49
Iowa	2,165,000	1,841,346	85.1	1,314,395	71.4	60.7
Kansas	1,983,000	1,623,623	81.9	1,072,216	66	54.1
Kentucky	2,993,000	2,556,815	85.4	1,544,026	60.4	51.6
Louisiana	3,255,000	2,730,380	83.9	1,765,656	64.7	54.2
Maine	968,000	882,337	91.2	651,817	73.9	67.3
Maryland	3,925,000	2,715,366	69.2	2,023,735	74.5	51.6
Massachusetts	4,749,000	4,008,796	84.4	2,734,006	68.2	57.6
Michigan	7,358,000	6,861,342	93.3	4,232,501	61.7	57.5
Minnesota	3,547,000	3,265,324	92.1	2,438,685	74.7	68.8
Mississippi	2,047,000	1,739,858	84.9	994,184	57.1	48.6
Missouri	4,105,000	3,860,672	94	2,359,892	61.1	57.5
Montana	668,000	698,260	104.5	410,986	58.9	61.5
Nebraska	1,234,000	1,085,217	87.9	697,019	64.2	56.5
Nevada	1,390,000	898,347	64.6	608,970	67.8	43.8
New Hampshire	911,000	856,519	94	569,081	66.4	62.5
New Jersey	6,245,000	4,710,768	75.4	3,187,226	67.7	51
New Mexico	1,263,000	972,895	77	598,605	61.5	47.4
New York	13,805,000	11,262,816	81.6	6,960,215	61.8	50.4
North Carolina	5,797,000	5,122,123	88.4	2,914,990	56.9	50.3
North Dakota	477,000			288,256		60.4
Ohio	8,433,000	7,537,822	89.4	4,701,998	62.4	55.8
Oklahoma	2,531,000	2,233,602	88.2	1,234,229	55.3	48.8
Oregon	2,530,000	1,943,699	76.8	1,533,968	78.9	60.6
Pennsylvania	9,155,000	7,781,997	85	4,912,185	63.1	53.7
Rhode Island	753,000	655,107	87	408,783	62.4	54.3
South Carolina	2,977,000	2,157,006	72.5	1,386,331	64.3	46.6
South Dakota	543,000	471,152	86.8	316,269	67.1	58.2
Tennessee	4,221,000	3,181,108	75.4	2,076,181	65.3	49.2
Texas	14,850,000	10,267,639	69.1	6,407,037	62.4	43.1
Utah	1,465,000	1,123,238	76.7	770,754	68.6	52.6
Vermont	460,000	427,354	92.9	294,308	68.9	64
Virginia	5,263,000	3,770, 273	71.6	2,789,808	74	53
Washington	4,368,000	3,335,714	76.4	2,487,433	74.6	56.9
West Virginia	1,416,000	1,067,822	75.4	648,124	60.7	45.8
Wisconsin	3,930,000			2,598,607		66.1
Wyoming	358,000	220,012	61.5	213,726	97.1	59.7
United States	205,815,000	156,421,311	76	105,586,274	67.5	51.3

Source: Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov

Notes: 2000 VAP refers to the total Voting Age Population of the state according to the Bureau of Census. VAP includes all persons over the age of 18, including those ineligible to vote in U.S. elections.   2000 Registered refers to the total number of registered voters.   Turnout refers to the total vote cast for the President of the United States.  North Dakota has no voter registration.  Wisconsin has election day registration at the polls.

 
Finally, Table 3 (see below) documents the number of citizens that voted for each presidential candidate in 2000, George Bush and Al Gore, and the number of electoral votes the candidate received. Again, this information gives some indication of how each party’s candidate may fare in 2004. For example, in Massachusetts in 2000, Al Gore won the popular and electoral college vote in a convincing fashion. This suggests that the Republican candidate in 2004 will face an uphill battle in winning the state and may be better off focusing his campaign energy elsewhere. The story in other states may not be so clear cut. Florida is an obvious example. In 2000, George Bush won the popular vote in Florida by only 537 votes thereby securing its 25 electoral college votes. Such a close race suggests that, in 2004, the state will be up for grabs to both the Democratic and Republican candidates. Consequently, it is highly likely that the candidates will place a great deal of effort into winning the state and its valuable electoral college votes.

2000 Presidential Electoral And Popular Vote

State	Electoral Vote		Popular Vote
	Bush (R)	Gore (D)	Bush (R)	Gore (D)	All Others	Total Vote
Alabama	9		941,173	692,611	32,488	1,666,272
Alaska	3		167,398	79,004	39,158	285,560
Arizona	8		781,652	685,341	65,023	1,532,016
Arkansas	6		472,940	422,768	26,073	921,781
California		54	4,567,429	5,861,203	537,224	10,965,856
Colorado	8		883,748	738,227	119,393	1,741,368
Connecticut		8	561,094	816,015	82,416	1,459,525
Delaware		3	137,288	180,068	10,266	327,622
Dist. of Columbia		2*	18,073	171,923	11,898	201,894
Florida	25		2,912,790	2,912,253	138,067	5,963,110
Georgia	13		1,419,720	1,116,230	60,854	2,596,804
Hawaii		4	137,845	205,286	24,820	367,951
Idaho	4		336,937	138,637	26,047	501,621
Illinois		22	2,019,421	2,589,026	133,676	4,742,123
Indiana	12		1,245,836	901,980	51,486	2,199,302
Iowa		7	634,373	638,517	42,673	1,315,563
Kansas	6		622,332	399,276	50,610	1,072,218
Kentucky	8		872,492	638,898	32,797	1,544,187
Louisiana	9		927,871	792,344	45,441	1,765,656
Maine		4	286,616	319,951	45,250	651,817
Maryland		10	813,797	1,145,782	65,901	2,025,480
Massachusetts		12	878,502	1,616,487	207,995	2,702,984
Michigan		18	1,953,139	2,170,418	108,944	4,232,501
Minnesota		10	1,109,659	1,168,266	160,760	2,438,685
Mississippi	7		572,844	404,614	16,726	994,184
Missouri	11		1,189,924	1,111,138	58,830	2,359,892
Montana	3		240,178	137,126	33,693	410,997
Nebraska	5		433,862	231,780	31,377	697,019
Nevada	4		301,575	279,978	27,417	608,970
New Hampshire	4		273,559	266,348	29,174	569,081
New Jersey		15	1,284,173	1,788,850	114,203	3,187,226
New Mexico		5	286,417	286,783	25,405	598,605
New York		33	2,403,374	4,107,697	310,928	6,821,999
North Carolina	14		1,631,163	1,257,692	22,407	2,911,262
North Dakota	3		174,852	95,284	18,120	288,256
Ohio	21		2,351,209	2,186,190	168,058	4,705,457
Oklahoma	8		744,337	474,276	15,616	1,234,229
Oregon		7	713,577	720,342	100,049	1,533,968
Pennsylvania		23	2,281,127	2,485,967	146,025	4,913,119
Rhode Island		4	130,555	249,508	29,049	409,112
South Carolina	8		785,937	565,561	31,219	1,382,717
South Dakota	3		190,700	118,804	6,765	316,269
Tennessee	11		1,061,949	981,720	32,512	2,076,181
Texas	32		3,799,639	2,433,746	174,252	6,407,637
Utah	5		515,096	203,053	52,605	770,754
Vermont		3	119,775	149,022	25,511	294,308
Virginia	13		1,437,490	1,217,290	84,667	2,739,447
Washington		11	1,108,864	1,247,652	130,917	2,487,433
West Virginia	5		336,475	295,497	16,152	648,124
Wisconsin		11	1,237,279	1,242,987	118,341	2,598,607
Wyoming	3		147,947	60,481	9,923	218,351
Total:	271	266	50,456,002 47.87%	50,999,897 48.38%	3,949,201 3.75%	105,405,100

Source: Federal Election Commission Website, www.fec.gov

Notes: * The District of Columbia has 3 electoral votes. Two votes were cast for Gore and the third was an abstention.  There are 538 total electoral votes and 270 electoral votes are needed to elect.