Tables 2 through 4 rank the partisanship of each state and give some indication of the stability of these rankings. (Table 2 listed below; table 3 and table 4 linked here as .pdf files.) For example, Table 4 shows that in the past four presidential elections, the state of Utah has ranked among the top ten Republican states. This suggests that the Republican candidate for president in 2004 can be fairly confident that he will receive the state’s support. Conversely, it is unlikely that the Democratic candidate will fare well in the state.

The data presented in Table 5 (see below) also give an indication of the factors shaping candidates’ campaigns. The table shows that, over the years, 31 states have exhibited strong interparty competition and that neither party’s candidate realistically can be considered a sure winner there. Consequently, both the Republican and Democratic candidates should consider these states up for grabs. It is highly likely that much of the candidates’ campaign efforts will be geared towards these swing states and that those with a large number of electoral college votes (Texas, Florida, California, New York, Illinois) will receive the most attention.

Partisanship also bears on the topic of foreign migration and its effect upon democratic politics. The relationship between partisanship and ethnicity has received significant attention regarding African American citizens. Since the time of the New Deal, the Democratic Party has received strong and consistent support from the African American population. The relationship was strengthened further with the civil rights movement. The partisan effects of the massive influx of foreign immigrants are unknown at this point. It is not entirely clear which political party will benefit from the growing numbers of Asians and Hispanics or Latinos. Much of this confusion stems from differences within ethnic groups. For example, research has shown that Cuban citizens tend to be more supportive of Republican candidates and that Puerto Ricans lean towards Democratic candidates (de la Garza, DeSipio, Garcia, Garcia, and Flacon 1992) Again, the unknown partisan leanings of these groups are likely to affect presidential campaign strategies. For example, Florida possesses several factors that make it attractive to candidates. It is a large state with a large number of electoral college votes. In addition, no one party has a lock on the vote in the state. Finally, Florida has a large Hispanic and Latino population. Because this population has not aligned itself firmly with one party or another, candidates most likely will spend a great deal of time persuading them to support their candidacy.

____________
Source: John F. Bibby and Thomas M. Holbrook, "Parties and Elections," in Virginia Gray and Herbert Jacob, eds. Politics in the American States, 6^th ed. (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 1996), Table 3.5. and Virginia Gray and Peter Eisinger, eds. American States and Cities, 2^nd ed. (New York: Longman, 1997), Table4.3.

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